What Brighton need to happen at AFCON to get Percy Tau a work permit

It’s become one of the great unanswered questions surrounding Brighton and Hove Albion for the past year – when are we going to get to see Percy Tau pull on the famous striped shirt?

The Lion of Judah was signed amid much fanfare last summer for £2.5m from Mamelodi Sundowns. Unfortunately though, the South African national team falling outside the top 50 of the FIFA World Rankings meant that Tau did not qualify for a British work permit and so had to spend the 2018-19 season out on loan with Union Saint-Gilloise.

Tau has subsequently torn up the Belgian second tier. He made 34 appearances in all competitions for Union, scoring 11 times and assisting a further 12 goals, all of which was enough to see him win the coveted Proximus Player of the Year award.

But none of that will help secure the legal right to work in Britain. Points towards being granted a work permit for those from a low ranked nation are only awarded for playing in one of Europe’s top seven leagues, which Belgium Division Two obviously isn’t.

There are bonus points to be had from playing in the Champions League and Europa League as well, which Union obviously haven’t.

That means that Tau’s only hope of being eligible to play for the Albion in 2019-20 is by Bafana Bafana breaking into the world’s top 50.

The good news is that this is possible providing Bafana Bafana have a good African Cup of Nations this summer.
Norway are currently the nation who occupy 50th spot in the rankings and they sit on 1420 points, some 85 ahead of South Africa back in 73rd.

That obviously leaves a whole host of teams that South Africa would need to overtake to climb into the top 50, but if they went all the way to the African Cup final in Egypt then they’d have seven games with which to do it.

Including Norway, seven of the nations ahead of them in the rankings are UEFA members, who will play a maximum of twice in Euro 2020 qualifiers. That gives Bafana Bafana five extra games in which to overhaul the European contingent.

There are six fellow African nations in the 23 countries separating South Africa with the top 50, but if Bafana Bafana do go far in the tournament then they should be overtaking them anyway.

The eight other nations hail from Asia, North America or South America, all of whose federations are only involved in friendly fixtures which are worth low-ranking points. As such, the likes of El Salvador, Jamaica and the United Arab Emirates could be easily passed by South Africa.

Regardless of who is ahead of them, they need to accumulate at least 85 ranking points to reach Norway and stand a chance of cracking the top 50.

Points are decided by adding a nation’s points before a game to the importance of a match and them multiplying that by the result of the match minus the expected result of the match.

Confused? It’s not exactly easy to understand, but essentially what it means is that the better quality of opposition you beat and the more important the game, the more points you are going to pick up.

South Africa’s three group games are against Ivory Coast, Namibia and Morocco with the first and last of those three nations ranked ahead of them. Victories for Tau and his teammates could result in them picking up as many as 20 points from each.

If Bafana Bafana win all three, they could feasibly have 60 points in the bank from the group stage. Win in the round of 16 and they might pick up another 20.

The games increase in importance after that, with quarter final, semi final and final wins all worth around 25 points.

Should South Africa go all the way, they could rack up in the region of 155 points which could be more than enough to push them into the top 50.

There is precedent for this. Cameroon won the last tournament in 2017 and surged 29 places up the World Rankings from 62nd to 33rd.

Runners up Egypt gained 12 places to move up to 23rd, losing semi finalists Burkina Faso and Ghana shot up 15 and nine spots respectively and quarter finalists Congo DR moved up 12, Morocco went up nine and hosts Gabon climbed 21.

In February, unfancied Qatar lifted the Asian Cup which saw them jump 38 places. Japan rose 23 for reaching the final, South Korea climbed 15, the United Arab Emirates 12 and Jordan (the country as opposed to Katie Price) 12.

The big question then is how likely is it that Bafana Bafana could be crowned champions of Africa this summer? If you believe what the bookmakers with sign up bonuses say, then not very – South Africa are available at a general price of 25/1, leaving them 12th favourites for the tournament.

The African Cup of Nations isn’t averse to nations surprising people though. Zambia famously beat Ivory Coast in the 2012 final whilst Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea have all reached the semi finals in the last three editions.

If South Africa are to stand a chance, then they’ll need Tau to have a great tournament. If he does, then it will be good news for Bafana Bafana, good news for him and good news for the Albion. Paul Barber should be ready and waiting to bang on the door of the Home Office as soon as they crack the top 50.

So, bust out the vuvuzelas and start cheering on South Africa this summer. The Lion of Judah is just seven wins away from a British Work Permit. In the name of Percy Tau, amen.