What you need to know about Nicolas Gonzalez

Here. We. Go. According to reports from numerous outlets, Brighton & Hove Albion are close to completing the capture of Argentinian forward Nicolas Gonzalez for a club-record £25 million from VfB Stuttgart.

The world and his wife know that a new striker had to be at the top of Graham Potter’s summer shopping list. If Brighton performed to their xG in 2020-21, then they could have finished as high as fifth in the Premier League.

Based on that, the signing of a clinical centre forward to put away the numerous chances that the Albion create could see the Seagulls swap a relegation battle for a spot in Europe.

It appears as if the club have decided that Gonzalez is that man. To splash out £25 million on one player when the latest club accounts showed a £67 million loss – even if Brighton raise funds through selling the likes of Yves Bissouma and Ben White – is a serious commitment to make.

If your interest has been piqued by the 23-year-old Gonzalez and you have checked him out on YouTube, then you will probably have been impressed.

Judging players based on their highlights reel can be a dangerous business however, as Brighton fans know only too well from Jurgen Locadia, Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Elvis Manu, Cristian Baz, Agustin Battipiedi, Diego Arismendi… the list goes on.

A big fee is not a reliable indication as to a player’s ability either. Locadia was once the Albion’s record signing at £14 million from PSV Eindhoven; within two years, he was moving to the might of FC Cincinnati to sit on the bench in the might of the MLS.

Jahanbakhsh inherited Locadia’s most expensive tag when Brighton handed over £17 million to AZ Alkmaar for his signature. Three seasons and two Premier League goals later and that cannot be described as money well spent.

All of which is why we have taken the time to dig a little deeper into Nicolas Gonzalez ahead of his move to Brighton. What sort of player is he, where will he fit in and most importantly of all – is he the man to turn the Albion from perennial strugglers into a top 10 Premier League club?

Nicolas Gonzalez’s career so far
Gonzalez began his career in his native Argentina with Argentinos Juniors, coming through the ranks with a certain Alexis Mac Allister, whom he is very good friends with.

You may remember last August that Mac Allister uploaded a picture of Gonzalez and himself in his house in Brighton despite the travel restrictions in place because of the pandemic.

This led to rumours that a £15 million deal between Brighton and Stuttgart was imminent – why else would Mac Allister be breaking the Albion’s Covid-secure bubble by having his mate fly in from Geramany, who presumably was breaking VfB’s own bubble in doing so?

Nothing came of the flying visit to Sussex and Stuttgart sporting director Thomas Hitzlsperger dismissed that fee at the time. He did not though rule out Gonzalez departing the Mercedes-Benz Arena, saying: “Let’s be honest, if someone comes in on October 1st and puts a fabulous sum of €30 million plus on the table for Nico or another player, who should refuse something like that?”

One year on and it looks like Hitzlsperger has his valuation met. £25 million would represent a decent profit on the £7.5 million Stuttgart paid to Argentinos Juniors for Gonzalez in the summer of 2018.

He arrived in Germany having scored 11 goals in 44 appearances for his boyhood club, leaving Estadio Diego Armando Maradona six months before Brighton agreed to sign Mac Allister for £8.5 million.

Gonzalez’s first season in Germany did not go too well as Stuttgart ended the 2018-19 campaign relegated from the Bundesliga. He contributed two goals and four assists from 33 appearances mainly made from out on the left wing.

In 2019-20, Stuttgart used Gonzalez more centrally and he responded with 15 goals and four assists in 29 matches. He stayed through the middle in an injury hit 2020-21 season, playing just 17 games. Despite his lack of minutes, Gonzalez still weighed in with six goals and two assists.

How clinical is Nicolas Gonzalez?
So, this is probably the most important question when it comes to Nicolas Gonzalez and Brighton – how clinical is he? A record of one goal every 155 minutes in the Bundesliga last season looks good, even if you think of German football as a fArMErS lEaGuE (which it isn’t).

Comparing Gonzalez’s strike rate to Albion forwards in the Premier League in 2020-21, Neal Maupay averaged a goal every 315 minutes, Danny Welbeck one every 258 minutes and Aaron Connolly one every 395 minutes.

For those interested in these things, Connolly appeared in the non-sports pages of the newspapers once for every 12 minutes he played last season.

What with Gonzalez moving to the xGulls, it seems only right we check out his xG. According to Understat, Gonzalez’s six 2020-21 goals came from an xG of 7.31, meaning that he underperformed his expected goals by 1.31.

Maupay had an xG of 13.77 last season but only scored eight times, an underperformance of 5.77 goals. Incredibly, Aaron Connolly had an xG of only 4.46, which seems mad given he contributed three nominations alone in the Miss of the Year category at the WAB 2020-21 Awards. His two goals meant he underperformed by 2.46 goals.

Welbeck meanwhile scored six times from an xG of 7.38. His underperformance of 1.31 puts Dat Guy remarkably close to Gonzalez. That sounds like good news, given most Brighton fans were impressed with the contribution of Welbeck over the course of the 2020-21 season.

But – and there is always a but – watching Gonzalez with the naked eye rather than relying stats and numbers portrays a slightly different picture.

Richie Mills at Sussex Live spoke to Bundesliga football analyst Abel Meszaros, who described Gonzalez’s weaknesses as being, “his concentration, occasional selfishness in taking low percentage shots and his finishing.”

Anyone who watched Argentina take on Chile in the Copa America on Monday night will have seen that for themselves. We didn’t (too hungover still from England v Croatia) but Brighton fan Alex Cole did, offering the following scout report: “Should have had four or five goals from clear chances including a six yard header and a 1 v 1. Ended up with 0 goals. He’ll fit right in.”

I stayed up on Monday to watch Argentina v Chile to watch him. Should have had 4 or 5 goals from clear chances including a six yard header and a 1 v 1. Ended up with 0 goals. He’ll fit right in. #bhafc

— Alex Cole (@ColeAlex04) June 16, 2021

Where will Gonzalez play at Brighton?
After arriving in Europe as a left winger, Gonzalez has spent most of the past two seasons playing through the middle as a centre forward – the role Potter has entrusted to Welbeck when fit and Maupay when Dat Guy has been sidelined.

As the 2020-21 campaign went on, it became clear that is a position which Maupay is ill-equipped to fulfil at Premier League level. The Frenchman looks much more comfortable playing as an Ashley Barnes style second striker, annoying the life out of defences with his work rate, bringing others into play and creating opportunities rather than being asked to finish them.

If Gonzalez were to be used as a striker at the Amex, it would mean Maupay no longer being asked to lead the line as Brighton’s main source of goals. It would also soften the blow of Welbeck departing, should he decide to take up an offer from another Premier League club.

Gonzalez’s versatility is likely to be the most appealing aspect about him for Potter. Should Brighton ever want to use split strikers in that quirky W-M formation we saw at the start of April, then Gonzalez looks perfectly suited to starting out on the left.

Welbeck enjoyed great success from that position in the 3-0 win over Newcastle United and the 2-1 defeat at Manchester United. Again, that marks Gonzalez out as a Dat Guy replacement.

Gonzalez has also been used as a traditional left winger by Stuttgart this season, a second striker and has experience from earlier on his career out on the right.

He could feasibly fit in anywhere across the front line, which knowing Potter means that Gonzalez will probably end up playing at centre back.

Will Nicolas Gonzalez be a success at Brighton?
There are questions about Gonzalez’s clinicalness, even though his xG appears decent. His injury record is a bit of a concern, having missed 18 matches last season across four different spells on the sidelines and he also managed to pick up six yellow cards from his 17 games, so he should get on well with Maupay and Florin Andone.

Gonzalez does though have a decent scoring record in a good German league. Locadia and Jahanbakhsh in contrast arrived from a weak Eredivisie which was always a concern – Brighton’s experience is a lesson in why you should only go Dutch for recreational drugs and cheese, not expensive football players.

At 23, Gonzalez has the potential to get better and his ability to fulfil any role across the front three fits in with Potter’s desire for tactical flexibility.

Right now, he looks to be about as good a signing as Brighton can hope for. The Albion cannot compete for established Premier League strikers and so they have to try and find young diamonds from abroad who can be polished. The fact that Spurs have shown late interest in Gonzalez proves that the Seagulls are not the only club who see something in the forward.

Nobody really knows whether Nicholas Gonzalez will be a success at Brighton. Only time will tell… but he can’t be any worse than Locadia, right?