Will Brighton fans be watching UEFA Champions League live in 2022-23?
Defeat to Fulham brought back to the surface some of the gripes that Brighton fans have had with their team over the past few seasons.
Not clinical enough. Did not sign the reinforcements required in January. Need a new striker. There is a refereeing conspiracy to stop the Albion qualifying for Europe.
It is not all doom and gloom, however. Even after taking only point and scoring a single goal from two matches in which Brighton rained in a combined total of 34 shots on the Cottagers and Crystal Palace, the Albion still look in a strong position to finish in the top seven come May.
Europa Conference football is on the cards, bringing with it Thursday nights in Kazakhstan or Albania. Maybe even Europa League and meetings with fallen giants of the continental game.
There is even the slim possibility Seagulls supporters will find themselves looking up how to stream the UEFA Champions League live to watch Brighton from Camp Nou, the Santiago Bernabeu or the Allianz Arena.
Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United would appear at this stage to have the top three positions sewn up. But from Spurs in fourth down to Chelsea in 10th, only 11 points covers seven teams.
The passing of Her Majesty the Queen in September along with other matches postponed because of issues like rail strikes means the Premier League has struggled to find free weeks to fit rearranged fixtures.
It is a problem which has been exacerbated by the six week break for the World Cup, making 2022-23 a season already more jam-packed than usual.
Some teams have played 24 matches. Brighton on 22 have completed the fewest fixtures alongside Liverpool. With so many games still to be played in random midweek slots, there are certain to be many twists and turns yet.
What does this mean for Brighton? If we aiming for the stars and looking to welcome Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich to the Amex in the autumn, then the Champions League spots are currently seven points away.
Crucially, the Albion have two games in hand on Spurs. Win those and the gap is cut to one point. Repeat last season’s 1-0 win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium when Roberto De Zerbi leads his side there in April and, well, you get the picture.
Of the other clubs currently above Brighton in the battle for Europe, the Albion have a game in hand on Newcastle United.
The Saudi Sportswashers are six points ahead and will host De Zerbi and co at St James’ Park on a date yet-to-be-confirmed.
That pivotal fixture had been due to take place on Saturday 25th February until Newcastle made it through to the League Cup final, necessitating a lovely midweek trip to Tyneside at some point between now and May.
Fulham leapfrogged Brighton in the table with their win at the Amex and are three points ahead. The Albion will not play the Cottagers again – just as well seeing as they have become Brighton’s bogey side. With two games on hand, the Seagulls have every opportunity to overhaul this season’s surprise package.
Of the sides below the Albion, Liverpool probably pose the most danger. Having enjoyed a rather sticky start to 2023 which included defeats at the Amex in the FA Cup and Premier League, Jurgen Klopp appears to have steadied the ship.
The Redmen are level on points with Brighton and as already noted, both have played 22 matches. Liverpool are also out of the FA Cup, League Cup and having drawn lost 5-2 to Real Madrid at Anfield in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie, will probably be out of Europe too within the next couple of weeks.
That will mean Klopp and his players have only the Premier League to focus on. It would not be a surprise to see them make a late charge for a top four spot.
Their costly and powerful squad should, if we are honest, be higher in the standings than the likes of Brighton and Fulham.
Brentford sit on 35 points like the Albion and Liverpool but having played a game more. The Bees visit the Amex on Saturday 1st April, a fixture which at this stage looks like it will carry far more significance than just being about the Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham rivalry.
Bloom famously offers Brighton players a big win bonus if they secure victory over his fierce enemy; if Champions League football remains on the cards by the time Brentford rock up at the Amex, that amount could be even more significant than normal.
And then we come to Chelsea. Glow Up Graham Potter is doing a fantastic job at Stamford Bridge, having won just two of their past 12 Premier League games despite spending nearly half a billion pounds in the January transfer window alone.
As funny as it is watching Glow Up fail and Blues fans demand his sacking after he criticised a handful of Seagulls supporters for booing three months without a win at the Amex, Chelsea cannot surely remain this bad over the next three months.
Potter’s time at Brighton was characterised by good runs and bad runs of form. His appointment at Stamford Bridge seemed effectively to be based on 13 matches when the Albion were flying.
Was Todd Boehly even aware that preceding that was a six game losing streak, three months without a goal scored at the Amex and 11 without a win through the autumn and winter of 2021?
The point being that if Potter can end this current barren spell before he loses his job, his history as a manager suggests Chelsea will in all likelihood go on a sequence of results that pushes them into European contention.
That could be bad news for Brighton and the rest of the contenders vying for a top seven spot, especially when Potter can call upon the most expensively assembled squad in the Premier League. Not sure anyone believes you, Glow Up, when you say it is the hardest job in football…
As we prepare to enter the final third of the campaign, there are intriguing battles all over the Premier League. A three-horse title race is breaking out.
The relegation fight now looks like it will be decided in favour of whichever club has got their new managerial appointment right.
And as for Europe, anything could happen with so many teams grouped so tightly together. If Brighton maintain their December and January form over the remainder of the season, then the Champions League remains within reach.
If things tail off, the Albion can still pick up enough points to make it to Europe in either the Europa League or Conference.
Failing that, there is still the FA Cup. If Brighton can do it on a wet and windy Tuesday night in Stoke, then they will be into the quarter finals of the competition.
The Seagulls have shown that on their day they can beat anyone in England. Three of the European Super League Elite Six in Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool are already out.
It is not beyond the realms of possibility that a friendly draw means the Albion need to eliminate just one of Manchester City, Manchester United or Spurs on their way to winning the world’s greatest cup competition at Wembley – opening up an alternative route to the Europa League.
The frequency with which De Zerbi talks about Brighton qualifying for Europe, urging fans and players to dream of facing continental opposition in 2023-24 suggests the charismatic Italian very much believes the Albion can do it.
They may yet fall short. But what a season it has been so far to be sat here at the end of February, working through the permutations and the possibility of Brighton playing Champions League football. It certainly beats looking for the cheapest train to get to Hartlepool away.